Just read this article which was on Cory Bernardi's website.

Sorry - Who is Cory Bernardi?

A Liberal Senator from South Australia

Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)

  • Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years

By David Rose

Last updated at 5:38 AM on 29th January 2012

 

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

A painting, dated 1684, by Abraham Hondius depicts one of many frost fairs on the River Thames during the mini ice age

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.

We are now at what should be the peak of what scientists call ‘Cycle 24’ – which is why last week’s solar storm resulted in sightings of the aurora borealis further south than usual. But sunspot numbers are running at less than half those seen during cycle peaks in the 20th Century.

Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Cycle 25, whose peak is due in 2022, will be a great deal weaker still.

According to a paper issued last week by the Met Office, there is a  92 per cent chance that both Cycle 25 and those taking place in the following decades will be as weak as, or weaker than, the ‘Dalton minimum’ of 1790 to 1830. In this period, named after the meteorologist John Dalton, average temperatures in parts of Europe fell by 2C.

However, it is also possible that the new solar energy slump could be as deep as the ‘Maunder minimum’ (after astronomer Edward Maunder), between 1645 and 1715 in the coldest part of the ‘Little Ice Age’ when, as well as the Thames frost fairs, the canals of Holland froze solid.

The world average temperature from 1997 to 2012

Yet, in its paper, the Met Office claimed that the consequences now would be negligible – because the impact of the sun on climate is far less than man-made carbon dioxide. Although the sun’s output is likely to decrease until 2100, ‘This would only cause a reduction in global temperatures of 0.08C.’ Peter Stott, one of the authors, said: ‘Our findings suggest  a reduction of solar activity to levels not seen in hundreds of years would be insufficient to offset the dominant influence of greenhouse gases.’

These findings are fiercely disputed by other solar experts.

‘World temperatures may end up a lot cooler than now for 50 years or more,’ said Henrik Svensmark, director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at Denmark’s National Space Institute. ‘It will take a long battle to convince some climate scientists that the sun is important. It may well be that the sun is going to demonstrate this on its own, without the need for their help.’

He pointed out that, in claiming the effect of the solar minimum would be small, the Met Office was relying on the same computer models that are being undermined by the current pause in global-warming.

CO2 levels have continued to rise without interruption and, in 2007, the Met Office claimed that global warming was about to ‘come roaring back’. It said that between 2004 and 2014 there would be an overall increase of 0.3C. In 2009, it predicted that at least three of the years 2009 to 2014 would break the previous temperature record set in 1998.

World solar activity cycles from 1749 to 2040

So far there is no sign of any of this happening. But yesterday a Met Office spokesman insisted its models were still valid.

‘The ten-year projection remains groundbreaking science. The period for the original projection is not over yet,’ he said.

Dr Nicola Scafetta, of Duke University in North Carolina, is the author of several papers that argue the Met Office climate models show there should have been ‘steady warming from 2000 until now’.

‘If temperatures continue to stay flat or start to cool again, the divergence between the models and recorded data will eventually become so great that the whole scientific community will question the current theories,’ he said.

He believes that as the Met Office model attaches much greater significance to CO2 than to the sun, it was bound to conclude that there would not be cooling. ‘The real issue is whether the model itself is accurate,’ Dr Scafetta said. Meanwhile, one of America’s most eminent climate experts, Professor Judith Curry of the  Georgia Institute of Technology, said she found the Met Office’s confident prediction of a ‘negligible’ impact difficult to understand.

‘The responsible thing to do would be to accept the fact that the models may have severe shortcomings when it comes to the influence of the sun,’ said Professor Curry. As for the warming pause, she said that many scientists ‘are not surprised’.

Four hundred years of sunspot observations

She argued it is becoming evident that factors other than CO2 play an important role in rising or falling warmth, such as the 60-year water temperature cycles in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans.

‘They have insufficiently been appreciated in terms of global climate,’ said Prof Curry. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific cycle ‘flipped’ back from warm to cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is also thought likely to flip in the next few years .

Pal Brekke, senior adviser at the Norwegian Space Centre, said some scientists found the importance of water cycles difficult to accept, because doing so means admitting that the oceans – not CO2 – caused much of the global warming between 1970 and 1997.

The same goes for the impact of the sun – which was highly active for much of the 20th Century.

‘Nature is about to carry out a very interesting experiment,’ he said. ‘Ten or 15 years from now, we will be able to determine much better whether the warming of the late 20th Century really was caused by man-made CO2, or by natural variability.’

Meanwhile, since the end of last year, world temperatures have fallen by more than half a degree, as the cold ‘La Nina’ effect has re-emerged in the South Pacific.

‘We’re now well into the second decade of the pause,’ said Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. ‘If we don’t see convincing evidence of global warming by 2015, it will start to become clear whether the models are bunk. And, if they are, the implications for some scientists could be very serious

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-globa...

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Hello Donald

This is so enjoyable and intriguing to read, the photos are brilliant, even saw a car like ours stuck in the snow same color black passat.  Great reading about the mysterious blue spheres, that they think it may have come from birds eggs what they had in the feet, enjoyed the story reading about the mysterious object at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, looking like a spaceship from another planet.  And how the ocean maybe controlling our temp and how it can do a flip.  Great reading and learning here, don’t want to leave but have too, go and prepare for dinner.  Enjoyed being in here for awhile pack with information, great stuff.

Barb

Germany's top environmentalist turns climate change sceptic.

 I forget where I found this but if no-one else has put it up it is here FYI.

http://www.thegwpf.org/best-of-blogs/4867-germanys-top-environmenta...

Fritz Vahrenholt says he no longer trusts the predictions of the IPCC.

An interesting statistic from the article

Only 31% of Germans are afraid of a global warming. In 2006 that number was double.”

Hello Donald and Jeanne

With all that you both have research and looked up, and great information. My Hubbie reads a lot and watches documents all the time, he has been saying for a while now; we could be heading for an Ice age.  I've been saying for a while now, 10 years back they said we would be 3 ft underwater along the coastal places by now 2012 there has not even been any rising of the sea level at all, it’s still the same.  I remember way back in grade 4 or 5, we were taught about sun flares, and how they could change and could take us all out.  At the end of the day, and being skeptical and so far, with the carbon tax thing turning out it’s only a money making spin off  keeping goverment in money and a lot of scientist in paying jobs.  I think there are different cycles we go through naturally, and even the extinguishion of the Dinasoars and all the animals of the era, wipe out, and still today no one really knows what did happen, but it must have been so catarsrufic,  so I feel we might have the same fate soon or later when least expected, so I’m gauging has something has a lot to do with sun flares and the what I was reading with yours Donald, sea levels doing a flips, the sun and moon control High tide and low, all of that.  So my theory is, it’s all natural cycles we are experiencing weather wise. I reckon my teacher was right back in grade 4 and I’m going back 59 years ago.

My other theory is.

Alternately man is doing all the destruction on this planet for sure, and you have to wonder as well, even the weight of water, in the Suez cannel and many other deep cannels and dams along with heavy shipping using them all every hour and day of the week,  the amount of water and extra weight and they are going deeper again in some places to accommodate ships with more containers sitting deeper in the water.  Also with all the different dams of the world growing bigger again, We are very lucky it hasn’t thrown us off our axels even more than it has,   I do believe it has been tilted a fraction, and that in itself could be catastrophic for us if it goes worse, and maybe and could be why some things are happening now,  not co2’s, and whatnots, even the weight be taken out of our country all the iron ore and coal, God in all his wisdom had everything balanced to the right  proportions, and we are dead set mucking around with weights and measures, even to bombs going off.  So I feel with maybe the axle off a fraction could be contributing to the earth’s happenings, wouldn’t that put us in a different angle to the flares of the sun now, thus becoming different in weather.    Maybe?

Barb

Big Question:

When does Professor Tim Flannery get fired and recompense back to the public purse happen ?

Please don't fall over LYAO.

-

From an Alaskan link, a Youtube of the emergency fuel supply to the port city of Nome, by the Russian Tanker M/T Renda, assisted by the USCGC Healy, across the Bering Sea.

This video shows that the Polar region is not going to be ice free anytime soon. At least until the Spring thaw, which does need any help from us.

And now the Three Stooges and assistants who are "investigating" the "disasterous" melting of the Antarctic sea ice, glaciers and ice cap.

A few days ago after a flight into Ushuaia capital city of Tierra del Fuego Province, Argentina, ex VEEP Al Gore, NCAR member Kevin Trenberth and serial climate prediction failure Dr James Hansen amongst over 100 others sailed to the Antarctic to see first hand the warming of the Antarctic. This is part of Gore's The Climate Reality Project, so it looks like we will be presented with more of Gore's B/S propaganda coming up.

They'll probably visit the Pine Island Glacier, which is in the process of calving of a large sheet of floating ice, and carry on like was done with the Wilkins ice shelf calving 2009-2010.

This is part of Gore's trip, which includes visiting Bangladesh to show the rising sea levels.

Members of his party include Darryl Hannah, Virgin's Richard Branson and other "climate luminaries".

Didn't anyone tell them, that it's late summer in Antarctica - even the sun's up 24hrs. It's thawing.

None of these people would acknowledge that the cold has killed in excess of 200 people this last week in Europe. Figures for the Russias and China haven't been quoted yet.

Jeff

Just for those with a strong stomach, Mr Al Gore's link the The Climate Reality Project covering the 'expedition', -  translate - "junket".

http://climaterealityproject.org/2012/02/03/antarctic-glaciers-and-...

Please read the comments under this epistle from Gore.

-

I didn't mention above, one of the members of this 'party' is Christiana Figueres, the Executive Officer of the UNFCCC - ie, Cancun, Durban Climate CONferences.

Ms Figueres is an Al Gore trained The Climate Project (now The Climate Reality Project) presenter, and is in a very powerful position.

 Hello Jeff

You mean Tim would have to give up his house he bought by the water's edge which should have been 3 ft under by now,  to help payback maybe, that would be a great laugh. 

 Hasn't Al Gore made his millions out of this sort of crap?   He must need a top up.

That Ice that’s broken off, I think they said it was 4 times as big as Melbourne, not sure of that amount of times, could have even been 10  I wasn’t paying too much of attention. But did hear it’s the biggest yet to break off .  That’s been doing that all the way through breaking off, a natural accurance.  And last time I look the world was round, and we are all in it, don’t see no sea rising here.  Like I said 10 years back they said we would be standing in 3 ft by the wateredge.2012.   It’s all crap.

The movie was great to see, and certainly proved the point.  How's the amount of cables needed in towing and the thickness of the ice, and having to maintain the speed, not to go to fast as the ice would just close up around them again, so the speed had to be spot on.   They can have that on their own living in that little town.  That actually made me feel really cold watching it, and I am in Melbourne in 40degrees heat at the moment, think I will leave this on, so I can come back and watch it from time to time to feel cool.  Wishful thinking or a cold glass of water.  I will think about that one.

Barb

I've just realised why the big expedition to Antartica by the Climate Reality Project leaders.

-

They've gone there to do a head count on the Poley Bears.

Bet they comeback and report it's too late, they've all drowned because of the melted ice, caused by every accelerating Climate Disruption.

LOL

Barbara,

Your previous post above mine, about 7 hours ago, mentions the tilt of the earth changing.

Please don't be misled by the propaganda that comes out of the alarmist camp. Man's tiny scratching of the surface (even with a couple of mines being over 2.5km deep) will have no measurable effect.

The CAGW crew have tried the "ïf the ice caps melt, it will cause the axis of rotation to shift." - NO

The Earth's tilt of axis varies 22.1deg to 24.5deg over a very long period ~ 41,000 years.

There is also a 18.6 year wobble of axis (nutation) due to variations of moon's orbit.

Also longer variations due to the Milankovitch cycles ~ 140,000 years amongst others.

Other planets in the Solar system have rotational and orbit effects (Rhodes Fairbridge and others )

The magnetic poles move - hence magnetic compass corrections - before GPS

It gets too complicated, my head is starting to spin - LOL

I'll drink to that

Jeff T Hutcho said:

I've just realised why the big expedition to Antartica by the Climate Reality Project leaders.

-

They've gone there to do a head count on the Poley Bears.

Bet they comeback and report it's too late, they've all drowned because of the melted ice, caused by every accelerating Climate Disruption.

LOL

NO

you are all wrong.

it isn't the next mini ice age.

mother nature has heard about Juliars carbon tax and has decided that because australia has implimented the tax then all is good in the world and she can cool everything down.

it has nothing to do with natural cyles or water temperature, it is all because of Juliars carbon tax.

just the implimentation of the tax in australia was enough to reverse global warming.

all hail (with rocks) our esteemed leader.

 

I like to think I'm a peacable man Darby.

BUT if any one is short of rocks give me a hoy and I'll be happy to oblige.

 

Hi Jeff

Sounds like you know your stuff, but surly the weight of lots volumes of water with making the cannels even deeper now and with the large amounts of shipping with heavy containers to get through, on one side of the earth, along with huge dams,  I’m sure I heard it actual had tilted a fraction.  “Don’t listen to alarmist, but it does make you stop and think about weights and measures being equal around the earth for it to spin properly.  I do admire how you guys come up with the answers, and sounds like you are a scientist Jeff.

Must go Jeff enjoy your Saturday night

Cheerio

Barb


Jeff T Hutcho said:

Barbara,

Your previous post above mine, about 7 hours ago, mentions the tilt of the earth changing.

Please don't be misled by the propaganda that comes out of the alarmist camp. Man's tiny scratching of the surface (even with a couple of mines being over 2.5km deep) will have no measurable effect.

The CAGW crew have tried the "ïf the ice caps melt, it will cause the axis of rotation to shift." - NO

The Earth's tilt of axis varies 22.1deg to 24.5deg over a very long period ~ 41,000 years.

There is also a 18.6 year wobble of axis (nutation) due to variations of moon's orbit.

Also longer variations due to the Milankovitch cycles ~ 140,000 years amongst others.

Other planets in the Solar system have rotational and orbit effects (Rhodes Fairbridge and others )

The magnetic poles move - hence magnetic compass corrections - before GPS

It gets too complicated, my head is starting to spin - LOL

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